Gujarat Titans show how home advantage is done

They are turning Ahmedabad into a fortress, where they have beaten Mumbai Indians four out of four times

Sidharth Monga29-Mar-20251:40

Pujara: Good to see Prasidh developing variations

Gujarat Titans (GT) have now beaten Mumbai Indians (MI) in all their four matches at home in the IPL. A young team beating one of the most successful T20 franchises so regularly is impressive in itself, but what’s even more impressive is that they have always had sound theories on how to beat their western-Indian neighbours.The first two wins came in IPL 2023, when GT managed to win four Ahmedabad matches out of seven when batting first. Despite dew, they did so through an early window of movement for fast bowlers. They had Mohammed Shami to exploit it. Both their wins against MI that year were on red-soil pitches where they scored 200-plus when asked to bat first and broke the game open with the new ball when defending. GT could play that way because MI didn’t have Jasprit Bumrah or a fast bowler to exploit these conditions.GT won the title in their debut season and came within one good ball of defending it next year. MI, of course, went shopping and took away their captain Hardik Pandya in 2024. They also put together a side full of big hitters. Bumrah was also fit. This time GT switched to a lower par-score pitch. Now they defended 168 successfully through change-up bowlers Rashid Khan, R Sai Kishore and Mohit Sharma.Related

  • Hardik the bowler gets the better of Gill the batter, again

  • Hardik: 'Batters have to come to the party, hopefully soon'

  • 'You know the match is almost done' – Gill's praise for Prasidh's match-winning spell

  • Titans off the mark with a thumping win over Mumbai Indians

  • Sai Sudharsan, Prasidh Krishna consign MI to big defeat

Cut to their fourth encounter against MI at home. Even though captain Shubman Gill said their choice of a black-soil pitch was not specific to the opposition, Parthiv Patel, the assistant coach, said during a spot interview that they wanted to play MI on a black-soil pitch. Not only would it neutralise the threat of Trent Boult and Deepak Chahar with the new ball, it would also take MI away from the comforts of red-soil pitches that they are used to at the Wankhede.It also turned out that GT have a side more suited to under-200 games rather than the 240 one they ended up losing against Punjab Kings (PBKS). They have the most efficient anchor batter in all T20 cricket in Jos Buttler, and also B Sai Sudharsan, who capitalises on the powerplay and can anchor in the middle overs. The core of their batting is good enough to adapt to slightly difficult batting conditions.Most of all, GT have tall, into-the-pitch fast bowlers who can make use of variable pace and bounce in a surface. The pitch looked like the one used for the 2023 ODI World Cup final, played like it, and brought back memories of tall bowlers stifling batters. Only Mumbai Indians, not Indian.Apart from displaying that GT know how to win at home, this win showed the synergy between the franchise and the ground authorities. Given the short duration of the contest, T20 matches can turn on events as small as losing a wet ball with a six that goes out of the stadium. The only way to come close to guaranteeing consistent success is to maximise the home advantage.Chennai Super Kings (CSK), who hardly ever miss the IPL playoffs, do so because they win twice as many matches as they lose at home, comfortably the best win-loss ratio at home among IPL teams. Kolkata Knight Riders’ (KKR) dominant run came when they could use their spinners on low-scoring home surfaces. As early as the first IPL, Shane Warne turned Sawai Mansingh Stadium into a fortress for Rajasthan Royals (RR), winning all seven matches at home. It is no surprise that GT have become a formidable team in their short existence: they hold the second-best win-loss ratio at home overall.1:06

Pujara: Siraj looks fired up again

Because of excessive dew and small grounds, MI and Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) can’t quite set out to maximise home advantage. This makes MI’s five titles an impressive feat. Outside them, the teams that generally struggle in the IPL are the ones without a stable home base, and can’t build their teams for specific conditions.Strange events are taking place in IPL 2025. CSK and KKR have gone on record about apparent tension with curators at Chepauk and Eden Gardens not maximising their home advantage. They are both set up for under-200 games for their spinners to come into their own, but the surfaces have denied them that. With administerial turmoil in Rajasthan Cricket Association and with the Jaipur stadium being under the government, and thus not looked after throughout the year, RR are now playing some of their games away from Jaipur, losing out on a home base and conditions they can dominate.In a sport as reliant on conditions as cricket is, home advantage is a valid tactic. That’s why winning away has always been special. However, IPL is a unique case. These franchises don’t keep the grounds running all year round. They are just tenants for a couple of months. They can’t feel entitled to the kind of co-operation a Ranji Trophy team might. The groundsman is well within his rights to ask the franchises to select according to the general conditions. They aren’t out to get the home side, they just loathe having to change the nature of the square.It pays to have a management and team leadership that can build good relations with the state association and the ground staff. All this makes CSK’s case particularly curious because their state association and their IPL franchise have had the closest links. Eden Gardens and Chepauk will be two grounds to watch out for in the coming games. Watch out also for GT’s use of different soils for different teams. Chances are, CSK will not get the black one.

No Rodri & the "next Kroos" signs: Man City's dream lineup after January

Manchester City are the closest challengers to Arsenal in the 2025/26 Premier League title race. We are only 11 games into the new season, with Pep Guardiola’s side four points behind that of his protege Mikel Arteta.

Last Sunday’s 3-0 thrashing of Liverpool at the Etihad Stadium was a performance which emphasised how deadly the Citizens can be at their best. It was certainly a statement to the Gunners, who might not have as much of easy a run at the title as one might think.

With the January transfer window around the corner, City might well look to add to their squad to boost their title hopes. Here is a look at their dream lineup if they manage to bring a few new faces into the club in January.

1 GK – Gianluigi Donnarumma

One of City’s marquee summer signings was Italian goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma from Paris Saint-Germain. Despite signing James Trafford as well, the Euro 2020 winner has been Guardiola’s first choice.

He’s played 12 times so far for the East Mancunian outfit, keeping an impressive six clean sheets and conceding just seven goals. Standing at six-foot-five, he has a large wingspan, which makes it nigh on impossible to score past him.

This save against Bryan Mbeumo’s strike in the Manchester Derby, his debut for the club, was an example of how colossal he is.

2 RB – Ben White

The first hypothetical new addition to this City side comes at right-back, and, interestingly, from their title rivals Arsenal. Journalist Graeme Bailey recently revealed that City are “keeping tabs on his situation” at the Emirates Stadium. A price was not named by Bailey.

It has not quite been the season the England international may have expected. White has struggled for regular game time under Arteta, with Jurrien Timber the first-choice at right-sided full-back.

White has only played six games across all competitions, with just one of those appearances coming in the Premier League. The 28-year-old is incredibly comfortable on the ball, averaging 5.99 progressive passes per game in the last 365 days. He seems like an archetypal Guardiola full-back and could bring plenty of quality in that position.

3 CB – Ruben Dias

One of the two first-choice centre-backs under Guardiola this season has been Ruben Dias. The Portuguese star has played 15 games across all competitions, and it is no secret the quality that he brings.

Composed on the ball, exceptional out of possession, and a brilliant leader, the 28-year-old has long been one of Guardiola’s most trusted lieutenants. City Director of Football, Hugo Viana, called him “the ultimate professional” in the summer, highlighting his importance to City.

4 CB – Josko Gvardiol

The other half of City’s centre-back pairing is Josko Gvardiol. The Croatian star can also operate left-back, but this term, he has found himself alongside Dias at the heart of the Citizens’ defence.

It is a role he has excelled in, too. Gvardiol is one of the best ball-playing defenders in the league, averaging 5.62 progressive passes and 1.03 progressive carries per 90 minutes, which really highlights his on-ball quality.

5 LB – Nico O’Reilly

It has been a breakthrough campaign for the versatile Nico O’Reilly. He has cemented his place in the City side at left-back, despite being a number ten by trade, and has made 14 appearances across all competitions.

Naturally an attacking player, the City academy graduate has chipped in with one goal and four assists, so he is having a productive season going forward.

This might be one of the things that caught the eye of Thomas Tuchel. The defender has been named in the last two England squads, amid hopes of securing a World Cup place next summer.

6 DM – Nico Gonzalez

Figuring out how to cope without Rodri in the side has been a conundrum for Guardiola over the last year. However, the form of Nico Gonzalez over the past few weeks has been a huge bonus. The Spaniard is finally starting to show why City paid £50m to get him from Porto last winter.

Once the best midfielder on the planet, the last 12 months have not been easy for Rodri, who suffered an anterior cruciate ligament injury at the start of last season. He’s only played 415 minutes this term as he continues to be plagued by injuries.

Gonzalez has stepped up in his countryman’s absence. Guardiola clearly sees a lot in his talent, having described him as a “mini Rodri” last season. The former Porto star has played 16 games across all competitions, and it will be hard to displace him from a side in great rhythm.

7 CM – Phil Foden

This season, one of City’s academy graduate gems, Phil Foden, is thriving in a new role. Previously operating as a winger, the England star has excelled in a deeper number eight berth, with Guardiola giving him more responsibility in build-up and from deeper areas of the pitch.

In that deeper role, BBC Sport analyst Umir Irfan said he has “been one of the best players this season.”

Goals & assists

0.5

7

Key passes

3.1

38

Dribbles completed

0.8

10

Tackles and interceptions

1.5

19

Expected goal involvements

0.44xGI

532xGI

The stats from this season highlight how well the midfielder has played. For example, he averages 3.1 key passes and 1.5 tackles and interceptions per 90 minutes.

8 CM – Aleksandar Pavlovic

Partnering Foden in this City dream lineup could be Bayern Munich and Germany midfielder Aleksandar Pavlovic, the second new signing. The 21-year-old is reportedly a key target for City, as they look to boost their midfield stocks, amidst Rodri’s injury issues and Bernardo Silva’s contract, which will expire this summer.

The midfielder, who could be worth as much as £43m, is well thought of around Europe. Journalist Manuel Veth has even suggested he can follow in the footsteps of a German legend and be “the next Toni Kroos,” which would surely appeal to City fans.

Despite being so young, he is well-trusted by City great and current Bayern coach Vincent Kompany. The Belgian has played Pavlovic 14 times this season. As for the Kroos comparison, well, that stems from his excellent passing ability. In the last year, Pavlovic has averaged 7.59 progressive passes per 90 minutes, ranking him in Europe’s top 8%.

9 RW – Rayan Cherki

The summer was a busy period for City, who looked to enhance the quality of the squad. In signing Rayan Cherki, it is fair to say they did just that. The Frenchman only cost £34m from Lyon, but has taken to life at City like a duck to water.

The France international is a versatile attacker who can play as a number 10 or off the right. Wherever he is operating, though, Cherki has shone this season despite injury issues. He already has six goals and assists in nine games, averaging a goal involvement every 535 minutes.

10 LW – Jeremy Doku

Last Sunday, against Arne Slot’s Liverpool, the Etihad Stadium witnessed one of the best performances in a long while from Jeremy Doku. He scored the third goal and completed seven dribbles, terrorising the Liverpool defence.

Already this season, the tricky Belgian winger has chalked up seven goals and assists this term. He has shone under Guardiola, with Irfan even going as far as saying he is “one of the best in the world” right now.

Southampton can hire big Eckert upgrade with move for "world-class" manager

Southampton were hit with a hammer blow on Saturday when they conceded in the 97th minute to lose to Millwall at The Den in their last Championship game of the month.

After fighting to make it 2-2 through Fin Azaz, the Saints defence fell asleep at a crucial moment to allow Tristan Crama to sneak in unmarked at the back post to score the winner.

It was a brutal way to lose a game of football, but it was also the first loss of Tonda Eckert’s time in interim charge, after four wins in his first four games in the dugout.

The latest on Tonda Eckert's future at Southampton

Football Insider recently reported that the German tactician is in the driving seat to land the role on a permanent basis, thanks to winning his first four matches in the Championship.

Manager Focus

Who are the greatest coaches in the land? Football FanCast’s Manager Focus series aims to reveal all.

The outlet claimed that the former U21s boss is the leading candidate to take the job from Sport Republic, ahead of more experienced managers who have been on the shortlist, including, but not limited to, Russell Martin.

However, Football Insider added that Eckert will still be given more time before a final decision is made, and that a permanent appointment is not imminent at this moment in time.

With this in mind, there is still time for Southampton to look elsewhere for their next manager, which is why they should push to hire Brendan Rodgers, who was linked with the role shortly after Will Still’s departure.

Why Southampton should hire Brendan Rodgers

Sport Republic, as they will, need to consider the short and long-term consequences with their next managerial appointment, because there are two elements at play.

In the short term, they need a manager, whether that is Eckert or someone else, who can guide the team up the table and into promotion contention to get back to the Premier League.

However, in the long term, the Saints need a boss who can then guide them to safety in the top-flight, because Martin was unable to do that after winning promotion with the club, which illustrates the importance of hiring a manager who can achieve both tasks.

Rodgers, once described as “world-class” by Gabby Agbonlahor, is a highly experienced Premier League manager who knows what it takes to be successful at that level, having managed Leicester, Liverpool, and Swansea in the top-flight.

Brendan Rodgers (Premier League)

Season (club)

Games

Position

22/23 (Leicester)

28

19

21/22 (Leicester)

38

8th

20/21 (Leicester)

38

5th

19/20 (Leicester)

38

5th

18/19 (Leicester)

10

9th

15/16 (Liverpool)

8

10th

14/15 (Liverpool)

38

6th

13/14 (Liverpool)

38

2nd

12/13 (Liverpool)

38

7th

11/12 (Swansea)

38

11th

Stats via Transfermarkt

As you can see in the table above, the only season that Rodgers did not have his team competing for a top-half finish was when he was sacked with ten matches to go in the 2022/23 campaign.

His overall history in the division suggests that he has the managerial chops to keep the Saints in the Premier League if they earn promotion, whilst Eckert has no previous experience at that level and would go in as a novice in that respect, just as Martin did.

Meanwhile, Rodgers is also coming off a second stint with Celtic in Scotland, where, as shown in the graphic above, he won four trophies in two full seasons in Glasgow.

The Northern Irish boss won four Premiership titles in four full seasons with the Hoops over two spells with the club, per Transfermarkt, which shows that the experienced manager also knows how to coach a team to win matches on a consistent basis.

That is further backed up by the fact that he won the Championship play-offs to win promotion to the Premier League with Swansea in the 2010/11 campaign, before finishing 11th in the top-flight with the Welsh outfit.

Rodgers is, therefore, a manager who has a proven track record of being able to achieve what Southampton need in the short and long-term, whilst Eckert has made a strong start to life in the Championship but does not have a proven record, with no top-flight experience.

"Really great coach" in pole position to be named permanent Southampton manager

The Saints are now edging closer to appointing a permanent manager.

By
Sean Markus Clifford

Nov 28, 2025

This is why Sport Republic should push to appoint Rodgers as their new permanent manager, if the former Hoops boss is willing to make the move, because he could be a big upgrade on Eckert with his reputation and proven coaching ability.

Red Sox' Alex Bregman Hints at Return From Injury in Instagram Post

The Boston Red Sox have been without star third baseman Alex Bregman for over a month, as the 31-year-old has been sidelined with a right quad strain since late May.

Bregman took to social media Wednesday and dropped a major hint about his potential return from the IL, suggesting it won't be long before he's back in Boston with the team. On Instagram, Bregman shared a video of himself hitting a home run at Fenway Park. He used an emoji that says "SOON" underneath an arrow as the caption for the post.

While Bregman didn't get into any specifics about his impending return, Red Sox manager Alex Cora acknowledged that there's "a really good chance" the veteran infielder returns prior to the All-Star break, via Ian Browne of MLB.com.

Boston's last series before the midseason break is set to begin Thursday—a four-game series against the rival Tampa Bay Rays at home. It seems likely Bregman will be back in the lineup at some point during that series.

Prior to sustaining the injury, Bregman had been off to a roaring start to his career with the Red Sox. In his first 51 games for the organization, he slashed .299/.385/.553 with 11 home runs and 35 RBIs.

Breaking down four sensational years of Joe Root

His double-century in Multan give him 1000-plus Test runs in a calendar year for the third time since 2021. Now, the question is, can he catch Tendulkar?

Graphics by Ashwini Adole10-Oct-2024At the end of 2020, Joe Root saw his average dip below 48.00. He had averaged less than 40 between 2018 and 2020, scoring just four centuries in 60 innings. There were questions about whether he still belonged in the Fab Four along with Steven Smith, Virat Kohli and Kane Williamson. But since the start of 2021, Root has outperformed those three by a significant margin.ESPNcricinfo LtdA ton every five innings
Root began 2021 with a mammoth double-ton in Galle and followed it up with a daddy hundred in the next Galle Test and then hit 218 in Chennai. Overall, since 2021, Root has 18 centuries in 91 innings. Smith (6), Kohli (2) and Williamson (9) have 17 combined in that period.ESPNcricinfo LtdTwice as good as the pack
Root’s closest competition in the past four years has actually come from outside the Fab Four, but even the next highest run-getters of the period have just over half the runs Root has scored in this time.ESPNcricinfo LtdBack to the 50-plus group
While you could put the volume of Root’s runs down to how many Tests England play – he has played 50 in the past four years, 16 more than Smith and Labuschagne and 30 more than Williamson – he has got those runs at an ever-increasing average. While he was below 48.00 at the start of 2021, he went past the 50-mark in the same year, and with his 262 in Multan, has gone past 51.00 for the first time since 2018.ESPNcricinfo Ltd1000-plus in a year, five times
Root’s 262 in Multan also took him past 1000 runs in 2024. This is the third time in the past four years he has scored 1000 in the year and the fifth time overall. Only Sachin Tendulkar has more 1000-run years in Tests, with six. Ricky Ponting, Kumar Sangakkara, Matthew Hayden, Alastair Cook, Brian Lara and Jacques Kallis have also done it five times.ESPNcricinfo LtdChasing Yousuf?
Root now has 1248 runs in 2024 and still has, potentially, five Tests to play: two more in Pakistan and three in New Zealand. If he bats at his 2024 average of 65.68, he will need nine more innings to overtake Mohammad Yousuf’s record of 1788 Test runs in a calendar year.ESPNcricinfo LtdTendulkar in Root’s sights
Having outstripped his contemporaries in the past four years, Root is now chasing all-time records. He is now fifth on the Test run-getters list and sixth on the centuries list. If he maintains the average he has scored at in the past four years, Root will need 56 more Test innings to pass Sachin Tendulkar’s record of 15,921 Test runs. At the rate England play Tests, Root could get there within three years, before he turns 37. Oddsmakers are already giving Root as good as a 33% chance to haul down Tendulkar’s tally.ESPNcricinfo LtdESPNcricinfo LtdESPNcricinfo LtdHammond’s doubles being run down
Root had already gone past Alastair Cook to become England’s all-time leading run-getter in Tests on day three of the Multan Test. On day four, he made his century a double, his sixth in Tests. Only Wally Hammond has more doubles for England, with seven. This was Root’s third Test double-century in Asia, making him the first visiting batter to achieve this feat.ESPNcricinfo LtdESPNcricinfo Ltd

Pedro upgrade: BlueCo enter race to sign "best CF in the world" for Chelsea

It has been a roller coaster of a season for Chelsea so far this year.

One week, it feels like Enzo Maresca’s side are on the brink of a crisis, and then the next, they look like one of the best sides in the Premier League.

Fortunately, despite some disappointing results, the Blues sit just six points behind Arsenal at the top of the table, although to further close the gap in the coming months, they need to be more clinical in attack.

The club might feel the same way, as recent reports have linked them with one of the best strikers in the world, someone who’d be a significant upgrade on Joao Pedro.

Chelsea's striker options

Despite spending as much as they have over the last few years, Chelsea’s centre-forward options are not ideal.

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With Nicolas Jackson at Bayern Munich, Maresca has to choose from Marc Guiu, who is not yet ready, Liam Delap, who has had a rough start to life in West London, and Pedro, who has underwhelmed in recent weeks.

So with this in mind, it’s not a surprise to see that the club are interested in signing a blockbuster centre-forward as soon as possible.

At least that is according to a recent report from journalist Graeme Bailey, who has revealed that Chelsea are interested in Julian Alvarez.

Baliey has revealed that the player’s representatives have made it “clear that he is considering his options” and that the Blues are one of several sides “keeping close tabs on the situation.”

While it’s unclear just how much the Argentine striker would cost, he’d likely become one of the West Londoners’ most expensive signings as he only joined Atlético Madrid for around £81m last summer.

With that said, Chelsea should still do what they can to sign Alvarez, as he’d supercharge their attack and be a significant upgrade on Pedro.

How Alvarez compares to Pedro

Now, although Pedro can play in attacking midfield and has done so on several occasions this season, he has spent more time this year and throughout his entire career as a striker.

In other words, his primary role is to score or assist goals for his side, but when you then compare his output with Alvarez’s, he comes out miles behind.

For example, in 30 appearances for Brighton & Hove Albion last season, totalling 2136 minutes, he scored ten goals and provided seven assists, which comes out to an average of a goal involvement every 1.76 games, or every 125.64 minutes.

In contrast, the Atleti star ended last year with an astounding tally of 29 goals and eight assists in 57 appearances, totalling 3967 minutes, which comes out to an average of a goal involvement every 1.54 games, or every 107.21 minutes.

Then this season, the Argentine has already amassed a tally of 13 goal involvements in 15 appearances, totalling 1216 minutes, which is an average of one every 1.15 games or every 93.53 minutes.

For his efforts, the Blues’ new man has produced seven goal involvements in 14 appearances, totalling 1124 minutes, which is an average of a goal involvement every other game, or every 160.57 minutes.

Okay, so the former Manchester City star is clearly the more dangerous attacker, but who comes out on top when you take a look under the hood, at their underlying numbers?

Alvarez vs Pedro

Statistics

Alvarez

Pedro

Non-Penalty Expected G+As

0.68

0.61

Progressive Carries

2.79

2.43

Progressive Passes

4.81

3.20

Shots

2.59

1.84

Shots on Target

1.34

0.97

Passing Accuracy

79.5%

78.5%

Key Passes

2.50

1.36

Passes into the Penalty Area

2.31

0.87

Shot-Creating Actions

4.60

2.42

Goal-Creating Actions

0.38

0.29

Carries

26.3

24.1

All Stats Via FBref for the 25/26 League Campaign

Well, it’s even worse for the former Seagulls star, as the Calchín-born star comes out ahead in every relevant metric from non-penalty expected goals plus assists to key passes and shot and goal-creating actions, all per 90.

In other words, the former City star is simply better than the Blues ace in every measurable metric, which helps explain why journalist Roy Nemer once labelled him “the best forward in the world.”

Ultimately, while it would likely cost a king’s ransom, Chelsea should do everything in their power to sign Alvarez, as he would be a massive upgrade on Pedro.

Chelsea's Yamal rival can surpass Palmer & Caicedo to become the world's best

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England six wickets away from series win after Archer gets Gill before lunch

India lost both their overnight batters, Rahul and Gill, and still trail by 88

ESPNcricinfo staff27-Jul-2025

Shubman Gill celebrates his fourth century of the series•AFP/Getty Images

Lunch England took a huge step towards a series-clinching win just before lunch on the fifth day in Manchester when Jofra Archer finally dislodged Shubman Gill after 87 overs of resistance.When Gill walked out to face a hat-trick ball in the first over of India’s second innings, his team trailed by 311 runs and looked certain to lose within four days. But a doughty, defiant century – the fourth in his first series as India captain – kept the match and the series alive, trimming the deficit to under 100 and slowly wearing England’s bowlers down.Gill was given a life early on the fifth day when Ollie Pope failed to hold onto a stinging chance at short cover, and was hit on the glove and helmet as Ben Stokes broke through the pain barrier to bowl an eight-over spell from the James Anderson End. Stokes did not bowl on the fourth day due to cramp and grimaced after every ball due to a shoulder niggle.But he was the man that gave England their first breakthrough, pinning KL Rahul on the back pad to trap him lbw and break a partnership worth 188 with Gill. Stokes exploited the variable bounce on offer throughout his spell, with some balls shooting through low and others – like the brute that struck Gill – leaping unexpectedly.Chris Woakes took the new ball alongside Archer and occasionally beat the bat, with Gill surviving an incredibly tight leave soon after a celebratory yelp on reaching three figures. But he played away from his body to a back-of-a-length ball from Archer shortly before lunch, and edged through to Jamie Smith to make England clear favourites.

How lucky were India on their last tour of Australia? A statistical model tells us

An analysis of expected runs and wickets, based on false shots played by batters

Kartikeya Date24-Oct-2024Rishabh Pant made 146 in 111 balls against England in India’s first innings of the Test at Edgbaston in 2022. It remains the second-quickest three-figure innings by an Indian batter in Test cricket since records for deliveries faced became available. The quickest was Mohammed Azharuddin’s 109 in 77 balls against South Africa in November 1996.How good was Pant’s innings? This is a difficult question to answer well, mostly because it is under-determined. For instance, it is not difficult to imagine that if Cheteshwar Pujara played the same 111 balls that Pant faced, he would make different choices and score a different (and almost certainly smaller) number of runs. Would Pujara be more or less likely than Pant to survive for those 111 deliveries? More generally, if the average batter made the choices that Pant made on those 111 deliveries, how many runs would result? And how many times would the average batter be dismissed, having made those choices? What are the expected runs and expected dismissals for the choices Pant made?The answer, according to the model that is described below, can be as follows.Of the 111 balls Pant faced, 73 were from right-arm quick bowlers and 38 from finger spinners. A summary of the shots Pant attempted is in the table below. xR is the expected runs for the average left-hand batter against the given bowling style when playing a specific shot.For example, Pant attempted to pull the right-arm fast-medium bowler nine times (eight of those deliveries were legal) and scored 16 runs. In the record, a left-hand batter has been dismissed 54 times in 485 false shots on the pull against the right-arm pacer. A false shot on the pull for this match-up produces 358 runs off 473 deliveries, while a successful pull shot produces 2464 (off 996). Pant played two false shots in those nine attempts. The expected wickets (xW) for those nine attempts is 0.23 (2*54/485). The expected runs (xR) figure is 18.2.Summing this up for all the shots that Pant attempted against each bowling style, and applying those to the average left-hand batter, it turns out that the average left-hand batter would have scored 97.5 runs off 111 balls and been dismissed 2.4 times, against bowlers of the type Pant faced in that innings.

The model used in this article relies on the ball-by-ball record collected by ESPNcricinfo, which lists what shot was attempted off which delivery and whether or not the batter was in control. The model also considers what style the bowler was bowling, and whether the batter is a right-hander or a left-hander. It is illustrated using examples in the table below.

When the left-hand batter sweeps the offspinner and is in control, 2.09 runs are scored per shot. When the left-hand batter successfully sweeps the slow left-arm orthodox bowler, 1.81 runs result per shot. When the left-hand batter is not in control of the sweep shot against the offbreak bowler, 0.118 dismissals occur; the corresponding figure against the slow left-arm orthodox bowler is 0.097 dismissals.To round out the information in the table, the average left-hand batter fails to control the sweep against the offspin bowler 33.5% of the time (1686 out of 5025 attempts fail), while 30.8% of sweeps against the slow left-arm orthodox bowler (1244 out of 4039) fail. For comparison, when the left-hand batter attempts to drive the offbreak bowler, the expected-runs figure is 0.89, the expected dismissals 0.141, and 9% (2354 out of 26109) attempts fail. The sweep involves greater risk, greater reward, and is more difficult to pull off than the drive. This is also why, typically, the field is set to defend the drive more often than it is to defend the sweep.Readers will note that when the ball is turning more, the drive and the sweep both carry greater risk than usual. It would be reasonable to think that the expected-dismissals figure for the drive or the sweep on a turning pitch should be higher than it would be on a flat pitch.The way the model used in this article accounts for the conditions is through the false shots record. On a turning pitch, the batter is likely to play false shots more often. For example, suppose that a left-hand batter attempts the sweep ten times against an offspin bowler on a flat pitch, and plays two false shots, instead of the expected three or four. The expected runs for these ten attempts would be 17.7. The eight successful attempts would generate 16.72, and the two failed attempts 0.94. The expected dismissals would be 0.24.On a turning pitch, the batter is likely to miss more sweeps. Let’s say the batter misses five sweeps. In this case, xR would be 12.8 runs, and xW would be 0.59. In this way, the xR and xW for every ball, and therefore for every batter and every bowler in every innings, can be estimated. The essential intuition here is that it is the false shot that makes a dismissal possible. When false shots from a particular shot type are more frequent, dismissal from that shot category is more likely too. The conditions only matter to the extent that they modify the likelihood of the occurrence of the false shot. In other words, conditions are easy or difficult depending on how often false shots occur in them.The same can also be said for bowlers. Facing James Anderson (right-arm fast-medium, under ESPNcricinfo’s classification) is a more daunting proposition than facing the average right-arm fast-medium bowler in a Test match. Anderson is more daunting because he challenges the middle of the bat more often than the average right-arm fast-medium bowler does. By evaluating expected dismissals based on the occurrence of false shots, the model accounts for this distinction. For instance, in England, Anderson induces a false shot every 4.9 balls, while the average right-arm fast-medium bowler does so every 5.1 balls. In Australia, Anderson induces a false shot every 6.4 balls, while the average right-arm fast-medium bowler does so every 6.2 balls. The model will return a higher expected-wickets figure than average against Anderson in England, and a lower xW than average against Anderson in Australia.R Ashwin induces a false shot every 5.4 balls in India, while the average offspinner does so every 6.2 balls. Outside India the gap is narrower (6.9 balls per false shot against Ashwin, 7.2 balls per false shot against the average offspinner). The model is able to accommodate these distinctions.The table below lists the 15 Test innings since 2014 with the highest xW. These could be considered the 15 most unlikely Test innings, in terms of their size and length, in the last ten years.

The table below lists the 15 unluckiest match bowling efforts in Test cricket since 2014. Mohammed Shami collected 182 for 2 at The Oval in 2018. He induced 107 false shots in the match. Over the 10,770 deliveries Shami has bowled in his Test career since the start of 2014, his xW/xR is 228.5/5775.0. He actual figures are 212/5896. His expected career bowling average since the start of 2014 is 25.7; his actual bowling average since then is 27.8.Jasprit Bumrah’s 0 for 92 in the 2021 World Test Championship final also features in the list below. He induced 55 false shots in that match without getting a wicket. This was one of only four instances of a bowler going wicketless in a Test since 2014 while producing an expected wickets total in excess of five wickets. Of the 339 instances since 2014 when a bowler has bowled at least 15 overs in a match and gone wicketless, the average expected wickets for such a bowler have been 1.77. Over his 37-Test career so far, Bumrah’s xW/xR is 168.3/3498.0. His actual career haul is 164/3365. His expected career average (20.8) closely matches his actual career average (20.51).

Only 1.6% of individual Test innings involve an xW of 3.5 or more. About 5% of Test innings involve 2.5 xW or more (see the graph below). The average individual three-figure score in a Test match involves 2.72 xW. The average innings where the xW is 1.0 (that is, between 0.50 and 1.49) produces 31.2 runs. The distribution of all innings and centuries in the graph below shows how much luckier a batter has to be than average to reach a century.Of the 792 Test hundreds scored since the start of 2014, only 41 have come in innings where the expected average (xR divided by xW) of the rest of the batters in the innings is less than 20 runs per wicket. Only eight have come in innings where xAve for the rest of the batters is less than 15 runs per wicket. These are:1. Aiden Markram’s 106 (103 balls) against India in Cape Town, 2024
2. KL Rahul’s 101 (137) against South Africa in Centurion, 2023

3. Steven Smith’s 109 (202) against India in Pune, 2017
4. Dimuth Karunaratne’s 107(174) against India in Bangalore, 2022

5. Ajinkya Rahane’s 103 (154) against England at Lord’s, 2014
6. Dimuth Karunaratne’s 158 not out (222) against South Africa in Galle, 2018
7. Dean Elgar’s 136 (228) against England at The Oval, 2017

8. Dinesh Chandimal’s 119 (186) against West Indies in St Lucia, 2018
Kartikeya DateThe xR and xW models extend the intuition underlying the control measurement to specify risks. For instance, India’s infamous 36 all out innings had an expected wickets/runs of 3.2/47.1 from those 128 balls. India’s fourth innings in Sydney on that tour lasted 786 balls from which they scored 334 for 5. The expected wickets/runs from those deliveries were 13.5/376.1.England made 420 all out in 613 balls in the third innings in Hyderabad in January this year. The expected wickets/runs from those 613 balls were 15.7/391.3. Over the course of the series, the Indian batting produced an expected average of 42.2 (their actual average in the series was 39.7), while England’s expected average was 26.0 (actual, 25.6). The figures belie the idea that it was a close series and that England were close to winning it. India were only 28 runs away from a 5-0 result.In Australia in 2020-21, India were decidedly the luckier of the two sides. Their expected average with the bat was 29.3 (actual 30.4). Australia’s expected average was 37.0 (actual 29.3). Essentially, enough Australian batters fell to early mistakes to nullify the difference in quality between the Australian and Indian attacks. The gap between the two attacks was narrower in the first two Tests (Australian batting: 32.7 xAve, Indian batting: 27.4 xAve) in 2020, than it was in the last two Tests, played in 2021 (Australian batting: 40.0 xAve, Indian batting: 30.0 xAve) after India had lost several players to injuries.The model could be modified, for instance, to consider the innings of the match in which the shot is attempted, to add greater texture. For a right-hand batter sweeping the slow left-arm orthodox bowler, the expected-wickets figure from innings one through innings four is 0.110, 0.111, 0.136, 0.123. In other words, the chance of a dismissal for a false shot on the sweep is between 11% and 14%. The conversion rate of false shot to dismissal is only marginally affected by the innings in the match.The temptation to build ever more elaborate sets of categories should be resisted. The larger the number of categories, the smaller the number of deliveries in each category, and consequently, the less stable the average expectation from each category. With more categories, it also becomes more difficult to keep them apart and ensure that they do not describe overlapping features. For example, ESPNcricinfo’s classification includes four categories of right-arm seam bowlers – right-arm medium, right-arm medium-fast, right-arm fast-medium, and right-arm fast. It becomes difficult to distinguish between the middle two. But it is also, on the other hand, easy to see why these categories might be useful. Consider, for instance, Colin de Grandhomme (medium), Chaminda Vaas, especially after his injury (medium-fast), Glenn McGrath (fast-medium), and Brett Lee (fast). The speed gun readings suggest that fast-medium bowlers fall back into the medium-fast category at times during Test matches, especially in flat batting conditions, when there’s a lot of bowling to be done. If anything, having a two-pronged classification of seam bowlers – fast and medium – would be sufficient. Ideally, an expected runs/wickets model would include the trajectory of the delivery and the batter’s control as its inputs. Absent this, the categories provided by ESPNcricinfo offer a usable proxy.This expected runs/wickets model is relatively easy to implement. They provide a baseline expectation and make it possible to measure both the relative quality of the teams involved in a match as well as relative good (or bad) fortune enjoyed by each. A model along the lines described in this article should be available in the coverage of every Test match. The figures used in this article include Tests completed on or before September 25, 2024

Paratici's a big fan: Tottenham now hold talks to sign "elite" £87m striker

Tottenham Hotspur have now entered talks to sign an “elite” new striker, with sporting director Fabio Paratici a big fan, it has been revealed.

Spurs looking to sign new striker amid Tel and Solanke concerns

Dominic Solanke has struggled on the injury front ever since his arrival at N17, with the striker suffering knee, thigh and ankle issues during the 2024-25 campaign, and he has been unable to put the problems behind him at the beginning of this season.

Solanke is set to be out of action for a prolonged period, with it emerging that Thomas Frank may not be particularly fond of the English striker, who was Ange Postecoglou’s first-choice option at centre-forward last season.

With the 28-year-old on the treatment table, Mathys Tel has led the line for Frank’s side in recent weeks, but Jamie O’Hara has not been impressed, and the former midfielder singled the Frenchman out for criticism after the 2-1 loss against Aston Villa.

As such, Tottenham are now ramping up their pursuit of a new striker, according to a report from Caught Offside, which states they have now opened talks over a deal for FC Porto star Samu Omorodion.

Paratici is a big fan of Omorodion’s versatility, and Spurs have held discussions over the possibility of an initial short-term deal with an option to buy, but the Portuguese club’s huge asking price has proven to be a major issue.

Indeed, the Liga Portugal side are set to hold out for a huge fee for the 21-year-old, with it being revealed they are unwilling to let him leave for below the €100m (£87m) release clause in the youngster’s contract.

Tottenham join hectic race to sign £75k-p/w star who Redknapp called "tremendous"

The Lilywhites could beat Chelsea to the deal…

ByTom Cunningham Oct 26, 2025 "Elite" Omorodion could take Tottenham's attack to next level

Scout Ben Mattinson has made it clear he believes the Porto striker is able to play at a much higher level, having already established himself as a Liga Portugal star.

The three-time Spain international has made a flying start to the campaign, scoring eight goals in ten matches in all competitions, off the back of scoring 19 league goals, in what was a very impressive 2024-25 campaign.

With Tel struggling, and Richarlison finding the back of the net 23 times in 103 games for Tottenham, it would make sense for Frank’s side to bring in a new striker, and Omorodion has proven he could be a fantastic option.

Salamkheil four-for sets up Patriots win on CPL 2025 opening night

Patriots stuttered a little bit in their small chase against Falcons, but Alick Athanaze and Jason Holder finished the job with five overs to spare

ESPNcricinfo staff15-Aug-2025CPL 2025 got off to a low-scoring start in Basseterre, where St Kitts and Nevis Patriots rode on a stellar bowling performance led by Waqar Salamkheil to run out six-wicket victors over Antigua and Barbuda Falcons.After Jason Holder opted to bowl, Kyle Mayers, Fazalhaq Farooqi and Naseem Shah left Falcons at 39 for 3 inside the fifth over. Salamkheil, the Afghanistan left-arm wristspinner, came on in the eighth over and was on target off his fourth ball, pitching just outside off stump and turning it back in to hit Fabian Allen’s stumps. He went on to spin out Shakib Al Hasan, Imad Wasim and Odean Smith to end with 4 for 22 from his four overs.Fortunately for Falcons, USA batter Karima Gore was in good nick, but with no other batter making a significant contribution, he had to pretty much go it alone. Gore’s 34-ball 61 included eight fours and two sixes, and Falcons would have wanted him to bat longer than he did after having walked out in the first over itself. As it happened, Farooqi returned to get rid of Gore in the 12th over, a slower delivery sliced high for Andre Fletcher, the wicketkeeper, to take a sharp running catch.All Patriots, the CPL 2021 winners, needed to score was 122, and though they got there quite comfortably, and never really looked in danger of not being able to, there was a little stutter in between thanks to Rahkeem Cornwall.Evin Lewis took off in a flash, scoring 25 in 13, before falling to Obed McCoy in the fourth over. Patriots made it out of the powerplay with just the loss of Lewis and 55 runs on the board, but in the seventh over, Cornwall sent back both Kyle Mayers and Rilee Rossouw. And suddenly, at 56 for 3, Patriots were looking just that little bit out of sorts.But Fletcher was playing a sedate knock, and in Alick Athanaze, Patriots found just the man for the job. Fletcher fell after scoring a 26-ball 19, to Salamkheil’s compatriot AM Ghazanfar at the end of the tenth over, but Patriots had reached 76 already by then. Athanaze, with an unbeaten 28-ball 37, and Holder, with 18 in 14 balls, finished the job from there with five overs in the bank.

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